Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 55%
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 58 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 55%
What changed: 40% → 55% since the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 58 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM PST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?