tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 69 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 53%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Midway departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 53%

    What changed: 42% → 53% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.