Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 82%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 28 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST · 10.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 59%
What changed: 57% → 59% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 71%
What changed: 59% → 71% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 71% over 28 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 82%
What changed: 71% → 82% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 82% over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?