Model raises Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 76%
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 30 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 56%
What changed: 47% → 56% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 30 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 76%
What changed: 56% → 76% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 76% over 30 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?