tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 70 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model raises Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 59%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 59%

    What changed: 45% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 20 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.