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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation DCA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among National departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST
Latest activity: Sun Nov 15, 8:26 AM EST
Updates: 6

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST

Model expects about 6 cancellations among National departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 83 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~5.6 over 83 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST (2026-11-15 03:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among National departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

What changed: about 6 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 83 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~8.7 over 83 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST · 9.1 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST

Updated model now expects about 12 among National departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

What changed: about 9 → 12 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 83 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~12.3 over 83 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST · 6.6 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST
Ingested	Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST
Published here	Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST

Model raises expected cancellations to about 32 among National departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

What changed: about 12 → 32 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 32 of the 83 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~32.1 over 83 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST
Ingested	Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST
Published here	Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 29 among National departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

What changed: about 32 → 29 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 29 of the 83 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~29.3 over 83 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST · 2.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST
Ingested	Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST
Published here	Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sun Nov 15, 8:26 AM EST