Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among National departures 3–6 PM Sunday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among National departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 85 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.0 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 32 among National departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 5 → 32 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 32 of the 85 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~31.8 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 7 among National departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 32 → 7 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 85 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.6 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 6.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among National departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 85 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.9 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among National departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 9 → 6 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 85 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.3 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among National departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 6 → 9 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 85 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.1 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?