tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Significant New Inbound aircraft DCA departures

National: 8 of 24 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

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  1. Initial Observed

    National: 8 of 24 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

    Of the 34 departures scheduled from National (DCA) between 11:30 AM and 1:00 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 24. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DCA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

    Evidence for this update
    Departures scheduled11:30 AM–1:00 PM EST · 34 departures, aircraft known for 24
    Tight turns8 (33%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure
    Inbound not yet in0 not taken off · 4 in the air
    MethodSFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    TightestWN 4962 to STL at 11:57 AM: aircraft N485WN, inbound WN 738 from STL (airborne), 8 min to turn
    TightestWN 1534 to MDW at 12:40 PM: aircraft N8607M, inbound WN 4429 from HOU (airborne), 12 min to turn
    TightestWN 1440 to MCO at 11:53 AM: aircraft N8658A, inbound WN 3242 from TPA (airborne), 21 min to turn
    TightestAA 869 to DFW at 11:57 AM: aircraft N874NN, inbound AA 2510 from DFW (airborne), 21 min to turn
    TightestYX 4429 to HSV at 11:30 AM: aircraft N412YX, inbound YX 4802 from IND (landed), 21 min to turn
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 16:30 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules
    Provenanceinbound_aircraft inbound-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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