Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among National departures noon–3 PM Sunday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 8 cancellations among National departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 79 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.6 over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 10 among National departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 79 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.8 over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 33 among National departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 33 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 79 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~32.5 over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 29 among National departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 33 → 29 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 29 of the 79 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~28.5 over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among National departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 29 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 79 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.1 over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among National departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 79 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.5 over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among National departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 79 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.5 over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.