tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model lowers National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 54%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for National departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 58%

    What changed: 49% → 58% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 54%

    What changed: 58% → 54% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.