Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 31%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 12:26 AM MST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 6–9 AM Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 9:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 50 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM MST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 31%, near normal
What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 8%
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 6–9 AM Sunday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 31% over 50 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM MST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?