Model raises Salt Lake City departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 55%
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 1:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 39 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM MST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Salt Lake City departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 61%
What changed: 40% → 61% since the 1:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 39 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM MST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 42%
What changed: 61% → 42% since the 2:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 39 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM MST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Salt Lake City departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 55%
What changed: 42% → 55% since the 3:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 39 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM MST · 4.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?