Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 26%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:55 AM MST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 51 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 6–9 AM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 43% over 51 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM MST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 26%, near normal
What changed: 43% → 26%; calm-weather level 8%
Tailodds’ model gives the 51 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 6–9 AM Sunday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 26% over 51 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM MST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?