Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 39%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM MST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 58%
What changed: 41% → 58% since the 11:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM MST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 37%
What changed: 58% → 37% since the 2:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 37% over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM MST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 51%
What changed: 37% → 51% since the 3:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM MST · 1.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 39%
What changed: 51% → 39% since the 6:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 39% over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM MST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?