Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Austin departures noon–3 PM Sunday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Austin departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.7 over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM CST · 10.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Austin departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 11 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.7 over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 7 among Austin departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 11 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 63 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.8 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM CST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 63 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.5 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM CST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Austin departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.6 over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM CST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.