Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Austin departures 3–6 PM Sunday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among Austin departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.3 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM CST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Austin departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.5 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 12 among Austin departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.4 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Austin departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 12 → 7 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.2 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM CST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Austin departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 6 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.3 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM CST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?