Updated model now expects about 5 among Austin departures 6–9 PM Sunday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Austin departures 6–9 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.0 over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST · 10.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Austin departures 6–9 PM Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.4 over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM CST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 5 among Austin departures 6–9 PM Sunday
What changed: about 9 → 5 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.5 over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?