tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Developing Delay BNA departures

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 87%

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 76% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 10:00 AM CST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 87%

    What changed: 76% → 87% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)87% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 3:00 PM CST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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