tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Developing Delay BNA departures

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 61%

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST · 10.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 61%

    What changed: 54% → 61% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 7:00 AM CST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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