tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 33%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 1:56 PM MST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-21 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 100 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Oct 21, 12:00 AM MST · 13.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-21 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 33%, near normal

    What changed: 41% → 33%; calm-weather level 26%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-21 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)33% over 100 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Oct 21, 1:00 PM MST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-21 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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