Phoenix aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 15 departures in the next 90 min are tight
- Current state
- Resolved at 9:34 PM MST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 5
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Observed
Phoenix: 15 of 33 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn
Of the 39 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 4:28 PM and 5:58 PM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 33. For 15 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Evidence for this update
Departures scheduled 4:28 PM–5:58 PM MST · 39 departures, aircraft known for 33 Tight turns 15 (45%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure Inbound not yet in 0 not taken off · 9 in the air Method SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds) Tightest WN 1151 to SAN at 5:38 PM: aircraft N458WN, inbound WN 1151 from AUS (airborne), -53 min to turn Tightest MQ 3831 to SEA at 5:34 PM: aircraft N339HG, inbound MQ 4104 from DEN (airborne), -9 min to turn Tightest OO 4944 to MRY at 4:32 PM: aircraft N517SY, inbound OO 6240 from MFR (landed), 5 min to turn Tightest AA 1331 to LAX at 4:53 PM: aircraft N508AY, inbound AA 765 from PHL (airborne), 5 min to turn Tightest AA 980 to BUR at 4:38 PM: aircraft N754UW, inbound AA 3256 from SBA (airborne), 12 min to turn Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-21 23:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Provenance inbound_aircraft inbound-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Observed
Fewer tight aircraft turns at Phoenix: 13 of 31 departures in the next 90 min, still high
What changed: tight share 45% → 42%
Of the 37 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 4:48 PM and 6:18 PM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 31. For 13 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Evidence for this update
Departures scheduled 4:48 PM–6:18 PM MST · 37 departures, aircraft known for 31 Tight turns 13 (42%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure Inbound not yet in 0 not taken off · 6 in the air Method SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds) Tightest WN 1151 to SAN at 5:38 PM: aircraft N458WN, inbound WN 1151 from AUS (airborne), -55 min to turn Tightest AA 1331 to LAX at 4:53 PM: aircraft N508AY, inbound AA 765 from PHL (landed), 7 min to turn Tightest MQ 3831 to SEA at 5:34 PM: aircraft N339HG, inbound MQ 4104 from DEN (airborne), 7 min to turn Tightest WN 3324 to IND at 5:39 PM: aircraft N8830Q, inbound WN 3324 from PDX (airborne), 12 min to turn Tightest MQ 4021 to CRQ at 5:02 PM: aircraft N344JA, inbound MQ 3819 from EUG (airborne), 19 min to turn Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-21 23:48 UTC) Sources Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Provenance inbound_aircraft inbound-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Observed
More tight aircraft turns at Phoenix: 18 of 29 departures in the next 90 min
What changed: tight share 42% → 62%
Of the 50 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 5:38 PM and 7:08 PM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 29. For 18 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Evidence for this update
Departures scheduled 5:38 PM–7:08 PM MST · 50 departures, aircraft known for 29 Tight turns 18 (62%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure Inbound not yet in 1 not taken off · 13 in the air Method SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds) Tightest WN 998 to ELP at 6:47 PM: aircraft N436WN, inbound WN 998 from DEN (not departed), -73 min to turn Tightest WN 1151 to SAN at 5:38 PM: aircraft N458WN, inbound WN 1151 from AUS (airborne), -56 min to turn Tightest WN 3324 to IND at 5:39 PM: aircraft N8830Q, inbound WN 3324 from PDX (landed), 10 min to turn Tightest WN 770 to PDX at 6:25 PM: aircraft N8818Q, inbound WN 770 from SNA (airborne), 11 min to turn Tightest WN 500 to LAX at 5:39 PM: aircraft N9009U, inbound WN 500 from DEN (landed), 11 min to turn Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 00:38 UTC) Sources Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Provenance inbound_aircraft inbound-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Observed
Fewer tight aircraft turns at Phoenix: 11 of 31 departures in the next 90 min, still high
What changed: tight share 62% → 35%
Of the 43 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 7:00 PM and 8:30 PM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 31. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Evidence for this update
Departures scheduled 7:00 PM–8:30 PM MST · 43 departures, aircraft known for 31 Tight turns 11 (35%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure Inbound not yet in 1 not taken off · 5 in the air Method SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds) Tightest WN 2002 to SAT at 7:10 PM: aircraft N228WN, inbound WN 4727 from ABQ (airborne), -53 min to turn Tightest WN 4371 to DEN at 8:10 PM: aircraft N910WN, inbound WN 1383 from ELP (not departed), -37 min to turn Tightest WN 3376 to DAL at 7:04 PM: aircraft N8729H, inbound WN 3376 from ONT (airborne), -7 min to turn Tightest OO 6499 to OMA at 7:05 PM: aircraft N511SY, inbound OO 6446 from BUR (airborne), -1 min to turn Tightest MQ 4219 to ICT at 7:21 PM: aircraft N224NN, inbound MQ 3949 from PSP (airborne), 1 min to turn Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 02:00 UTC) Sources Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Provenance inbound_aircraft inbound-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Recovery Observed
Phoenix aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 15 departures in the next 90 min are tight
What changed: tight share 62% at worst → 0% now
Of the 18 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 9:34 PM and 11:04 PM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Evidence for this update
Departures scheduled 9:34 PM–11:04 PM MST · 18 departures, aircraft known for 15 Tight turns 0 (0%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure Inbound not yet in 0 not taken off · 0 in the air Method SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 04:34 UTC) Sources Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Provenance inbound_aircraft inbound-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?