tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 6:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Oct 21, 6:00 PM MST · 19.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday at 61%

    What changed: 48% → 61% since the 6:00 PM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 12:00 PM MST · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%

    What changed: 61% → 56% since the 12:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 1:00 PM MST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 3:00 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.