tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 60%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 57 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 12:00 PM MST · 7.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 60%

    What changed: 49% → 60% since the 12:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 56 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 7:00 PM MST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:00 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.