tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 6:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Oct 21, 6:00 PM MST · 16.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 12:01 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.