Phoenix departures back near normal: 5% late in the last hour
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:09 AM MST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Observed
Phoenix departures running late: 52% left 15+ min late in the last hour
Of 44 departures that took off between 3:55 PM and 4:55 PM MST, 23 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Evidence for this update
Measurement window 3:55 PM–4:55 PM MST Sample 44 flights, 23 late (52%) Comparison 30% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour Median delay 15.0 min Method FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-21 23:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Provenance observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Observed
Phoenix departure delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour
What changed: late share 52% → 71%
Of 24 departures that took off between 5:10 PM and 6:10 PM MST, 17 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Evidence for this update
Measurement window 5:10 PM–6:10 PM MST Sample 24 flights, 17 late (71%) Comparison 30% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour Median delay 33.0 min Method FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 01:10 UTC) Sources Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Provenance observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Observed
Phoenix departure delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal
What changed: late share 71% → 56%
Of 27 departures that took off between 6:16 PM and 7:16 PM MST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Evidence for this update
Measurement window 6:16 PM–7:16 PM MST Sample 27 flights, 15 late (56%) Comparison 36% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour Median delay 17.0 min Method FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 02:16 UTC) Sources Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Provenance observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Recovery Observed
Phoenix departures back near normal: 5% late in the last hour
What changed: late share 85% at worst → 5% now
Of 19 departures that took off between 5:09 AM and 6:09 AM MST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 15% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Evidence for this update
Measurement window 5:09 AM–6:09 AM MST Sample 19 flights, 1 late (5%) Comparison 5% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 AM hour Median delay -3.0 min Method FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 13:09 UTC) Sources Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Provenance observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?