tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 87 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 131 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 131 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 7:00 AM MST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 14:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:01 AM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.