tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Austin departure delays worsen: 81% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    Austin departures running late: 47% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 19 departures that took off between 10:58 AM and 11:58 AM CDT, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window10:58 AM–11:58 AM CDT
    Sample19 flights, 9 late (47%)
    Comparison19% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour
    Median delay10.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 16:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Observed

    Austin departure delays worsen: 81% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 47% → 81%

    Of 16 departures that took off between 4:59 PM and 5:59 PM CDT, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window4:59 PM–5:59 PM CDT
    Sample16 flights, 13 late (81%)
    Comparison38% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour
    Median delay44.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 22:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 5:31 AM CDT: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.