tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations <1 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Austin departures 3–6 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Austin departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 66 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 12:00 PM CDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 3:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.