tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations <1 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 73%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View AUSFlights at AUS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Austin departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 15 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 1:00 PM CDT · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 59%

    What changed: 51% → 59% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 15 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 2:00 PM CDT · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 73%

    What changed: 59% → 73% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 6:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 15 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 6:00 PM CDT · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.