tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model forecasts 41% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Friday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 11:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 11:00 PM PDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 9:01 AM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.