Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: tight share 50% at worst → 0% now
Of the 32 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 4:55 AM and 6:25 AM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 22. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 4:55 AM–6:25 AM CSTTight turns 0 of 22Share 0%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:45 PM and 8:45 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:45 PM–8:45 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 23%
What changed: 69% → 66% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 66%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 47% at worst → 23% now
Of 22 arrivals that landed between 4:28 PM and 5:28 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 4:28 PM–5:28 PM CSTSample 22 flightsLate 23%Typical 23%
What changed: 58% → 69% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 69%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of the 32 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 4:49 PM and 6:19 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 4:49 PM–6:19 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 17Share 47%
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 3:26 PM and 4:26 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 3:26 PM–4:26 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 47%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 16 departures that took off between 1:19 PM and 2:19 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:19 PM–2:19 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 56%Typical 32%
Of 21 departures that took off between 7:05 PM and 8:05 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 44% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:05 PM–8:05 PM CSTSample 21 flightsLate 71%Typical 44%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:37 PM and 11:37 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:37 PM–11:37 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%
What changed: tight share 48% at worst → 12% now
Of the 17 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 10:21 PM and 11:51 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 2 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 10:21 PM–11:51 PM CSTTight turns 2 of 17Share 12%
What changed: 50% → 52%; calm-weather level 45%
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of the 31 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 1:11 PM and 2:41 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 26. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 1:11 PM–2:41 PM CSTTight turns 11 of 26Share 42%
What changed: tight share 65% at worst → 0% now
Of the 31 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 4:50 AM and 6:20 AM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 34 minutes across 6 checks, each with current data.
Next 4:50 AM–6:20 AM CSTTight turns 0 of 17Share 0%
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:29 PM and 10:29 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:29 PM–10:29 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 53%Typical 23%
What changed: late share 89% → 73%
Of 15 departures that took off between 9:19 PM and 10:19 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:19 PM–10:19 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 73%Typical 47%
What changed: late share 52% at worst → 25% now
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 8:56 PM and 9:56 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:56 PM–9:56 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 25%Typical 23%
What changed: late share 65% → 89%
Of 18 departures that took off between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM CST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:46 PM–9:46 PM CSTSample 18 flightsLate 89%Typical 47%
Of 34 arrivals that landed between 5:09 PM and 6:09 PM CST, 17 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:09 PM–6:09 PM CSTSample 34 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%
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