Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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What changed: about 7 → 12 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 79 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 79 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 3 → 8 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 6 → 14 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 106 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: about 7 → 3 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 13 → 6 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 63 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 10 → 13 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 27% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 27%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 108 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: ground delay program no longer listed
The ground delay program for flights to Boston (BOS) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 9:59 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 3:52 PM EST.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 109 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 AM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 104 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 11 → 11 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (51%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: about 10 → 11 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 23 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 9 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 24 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 24 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.