Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 41% → 55% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 44% → 56% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 41% → 27%; calm-weather level 13%
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 27% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 27%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 AM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 43% → 82% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 82%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 50% → 89% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 89%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 31 departures that took off between 9:33 AM and 10:33 AM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:33 AM–10:33 AM ESTSample 31 flightsLate 45%Typical 16%
What changed: 38% → 50% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 35% → 46% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 97% at worst → 16% now
Of 19 arrivals that landed between 6:46 AM and 7:46 AM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:46 AM–7:46 AM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 16%Typical 26%
What changed: 44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%
Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 29%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 65% → 84%
Of 19 departures that took off between 9:34 PM and 10:34 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:34 PM–10:34 PM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 84%Typical 47%
What changed: 61% → 60% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 60%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 58% → 71% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 71%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: late share 57% at worst → 4% now
Of 26 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:46 PM–9:46 PM ESTSample 26 flightsLate 4%Typical 26%
What changed: late share 48% at worst → 20% now
Of 25 arrivals that landed between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:53 PM–6:53 PM ESTSample 25 flightsLate 20%Typical 26%
What changed: late share 94% at worst → 23% now
Of 22 arrivals that landed between 11:26 PM and 12:26 AM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:26 PM–12:26 AM ESTSample 22 flightsLate 23%Typical 26%
What changed: late share 83% → 73%
Of 22 departures that took off between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:42 PM–10:42 PM ESTSample 22 flightsLate 73%Typical 47%
What changed: 62% → 55% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 100% at worst → 19% now
Of 16 departures that took off between 1:31 PM and 2:31 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:31 PM–2:31 PM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 19%Typical 24%
What changed: late share 59% at worst → 24% now
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 12:02 PM–1:02 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 24%Typical 26%
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