Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 85 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 4 min
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 20 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 2:56 PM and 4:26 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 18 departures that took off between 11:09 AM and 12:09 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 25 departures that took off between 10:24 AM and 11:24 AM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 departures that took off between 9:16 AM and 10:16 AM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 23 departures that took off between 8:34 AM and 9:34 AM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 20 departures that took off between 10:02 PM and 11:02 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
5 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:32 PM and 10:32 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of the 22 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 9:59 PM and 11:29 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 22. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of the 28 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 9:31 PM and 11:01 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 15 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
▼ 78% → 78% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 6:36 PM and 7:36 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
▲ 71% → 78% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 18 departures that took off between 5:34 PM and 6:34 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
5 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of the 32 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 5:49 PM and 7:19 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 20. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
▼ 73% → 71% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 3:52 PM and 4:52 PM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
5 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
▲ 71% → 73% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.