Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 hstaleForecast cycle 60 minLightning 222 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 5 min
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Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 20 departures that took off between 10:02 PM and 11:02 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 78% → 78% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 24 departures that took off between 8:09 PM and 9:09 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 24 departures that took off between 6:13 PM and 7:13 PM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 24 departures that took off between 8:03 PM and 9:03 PM EST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:46 PM and 11:46 PM EST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 22 departures that took off between 7:50 PM and 8:50 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 9:30 PM and 10:30 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 20 departures that took off between 7:25 PM and 8:25 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 26 departures that took off between 10:41 AM and 11:41 AM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:41 AM–11:41 AM ESTSample 26 flightsLate 8%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 23% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 23 departures that took off between 5:49 PM and 6:49 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 5:16 PM and 6:16 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
What changed: 82% → 79% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 56%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 80% → 78% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 61%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 58% → 66% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 departures that took off between 8:05 AM and 9:05 AM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:05 AM–9:05 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 13%Typical 10%
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
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