Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 64% → 46%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:33 PM–11:33 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 27%
What changed: late share 78% → 45%
Of 20 departures that took off between 8:37 PM and 9:37 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:37 PM–9:37 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 45%Typical 52%
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 68%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 67% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 67%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 57% → 56% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 65% at worst → 24% now
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 12:53 PM–1:53 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 24%Typical 27%
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 75% at worst → 18% now
Of 22 departures that took off between 6:29 PM and 7:29 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:29 PM–7:29 PM ESTSample 22 flightsLate 18%Typical 40%
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:15 PM and 12:15 AM EST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:15 PM–12:15 AM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 52%Typical 27%
What changed: late share 53% → 77%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:56 PM and 12:56 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:56 PM–12:56 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 77%Typical 27%
What changed: tight share 35% at worst → 11% now
Of the 31 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale (FLL) between 8:27 PM and 9:57 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 3 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into FLL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 8:27 PM–9:57 PM ESTTight turns 3 of 28Share 11%
Of 29 departures that took off between 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:30 PM–1:30 PM ESTSample 29 flightsLate 55%Typical 33%
What changed: 57% → 46%; calm-weather level 43%
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 67% at worst → 23% now
Of 13 departures that took off between 4:01 PM and 5:01 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 4:01 PM–5:01 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 23%Typical 40%
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 49%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 60% → 68%
Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:18 PM and 12:18 AM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:18 PM–12:18 AM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 68%Typical 27%
What changed: 72% → 71% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 71%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of the 39 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale (FLL) between 6:32 PM and 8:02 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 29. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into FLL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 6:32 PM–8:02 PM ESTTight turns 9 of 29Share 31%
What changed: 71% → 66% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 66%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 60% at worst → 17% now
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 3:17 PM and 4:17 PM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 3:17 PM–4:17 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 17%Typical 27%
What changed: late share 79% → 60%
Of 15 departures that took off between 3:17 PM and 4:17 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 3:17 PM–4:17 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 60%Typical 37%
What changed: 50% → 61% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 61%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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