Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 30 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 31 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 24 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 55% → 60% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 60%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility. The latest, at 6:54 AM EST, reports no ceiling, visibility 7 mi, wind 7 kt.
Observed 6:54 AM EST
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 7.8 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 4.8 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 1.8 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The 11:49 PM EST official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) reports ceiling 900 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 9 kt. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.
Observed 11:49 PM EST
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: 49% → 84% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 84%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 49%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:48 PM and 12:48 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:48 PM–12:48 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 71%Typical 22%
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 50% → 83%
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:35 PM and 7:35 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:35 PM–7:35 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 83%Typical 33%
Of 12 departures that took off between 4:14 PM and 5:14 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:14 PM–5:14 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 26%
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 16 departures that took off between 6:59 AM and 7:59 AM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:59 AM–7:59 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 8%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:04 PM and 12:04 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:04 PM–12:04 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 22%
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 43% → 32%; calm-weather level 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 32%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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