Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from LAX midnight–3 AM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 54% → 61% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 61%Horizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 52% → 67%
Of 33 departures that took off between 10:08 AM and 11:08 AM PST, 22 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:08 AM–11:08 AM PSTSample 33 flightsLate 67%Typical 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 57% → 68% since the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 68%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 60% → 52%
Of 23 departures that took off between 9:18 AM and 10:18 AM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:18 AM–10:18 AM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 52%Typical 17%
What changed: late share 33% → 60%
Of 20 departures that took off between 8:58 AM and 9:58 AM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:58 AM–9:58 AM PSTSample 20 flightsLate 60%Typical 17%
What changed: 59% → 69% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Saturday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 69%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 62% → 72% since the 5:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 72%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 49% → 57% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:09 AM and 8:09 AM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:09 AM–8:09 AM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 49%Horizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 54% → 59% since the 6:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 59%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 56% → 54% since the 5:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 71% → 33%
Of 15 departures that took off between 5:48 AM and 6:48 AM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:48 AM–6:48 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 33%Typical 8%
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 46% → 62% since the 3:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 48% → 58% since the 3:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 170 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 60% → 46% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 58% → 48% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 170 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 49% → 30%; calm-weather level 15%
Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 AM Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 30%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 51% → 60% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 60%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 50% → 58% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 169 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 59% → 71%
Of 21 departures that took off between 10:42 PM and 11:42 PM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:42 PM–11:42 PM PSTSample 21 flightsLate 71%Typical 21%
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