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Forecast Major Resolved Delay LAX departures

Model raises LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 58%

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST
Latest activity: Sat Nov 14, 6:26 AM PST
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for LAX departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Tailodds’ model gives the 168 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	50% over 168 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST · 10.0 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST

Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 58%

What changed: 50% → 58% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

Tailodds’ model gives the 169 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	58% over 169 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST · 8.5 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST

Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 48%

What changed: 58% → 48% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 170 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	48% over 170 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST · 5.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 6:26 AM PST