Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 30%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:57 AM PST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 49% delay risk for LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 AM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 30%, near normal
What changed: 49% → 30%; calm-weather level 15%
Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 AM Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 30% over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?