Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 47% → 57% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 50% → 92%
Of 12 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 55% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:06 PM–11:06 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 55%
What changed: late share 55% → 92%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:30 PM–9:30 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 22%
What changed: 69% → 63%; calm-weather level 57%
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 63%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 60%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 100% at worst → 17% now
Of 23 departures that took off between 8:41 PM and 9:41 PM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:41 PM–9:41 PM CSTSample 23 flightsLate 17%Typical 51%
What changed: late share 75% at worst → 28% now
Of 18 departures that took off between 1:09 PM and 2:09 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:09 PM–2:09 PM CSTSample 18 flightsLate 28%Typical 24%
What changed: 46% → 38%; calm-weather level 30%
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 38%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 42% → 29%; calm-weather level 25%
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 29%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 75% at worst → 0% now
Of 24 departures that took off between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM CST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:00 PM–7:00 PM CSTSample 24 flightsLate 0%Typical 42%
What changed: late share 56% at worst → 4% now
Of 26 departures that took off between 12:57 PM and 1:57 PM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 12:57 PM–1:57 PM CSTSample 26 flightsLate 4%Typical 24%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:25 PM and 9:25 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:25 PM–9:25 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 22%
What changed: late share 75% at worst → 15% now
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 7:32 PM and 8:32 PM CST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 7:32 PM–8:32 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 15%Typical 22%
What changed: 58% → 55%; calm-weather level 50%
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 51% → 64% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 departures that took off between 1:23 PM and 2:23 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:23 PM–2:23 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 24%
What changed: late share 83% → 44%
Of 18 departures that took off between 9:09 PM and 10:09 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:09 PM–10:09 PM CSTSample 18 flightsLate 44%Typical 51%
What changed: late share 57% → 70%
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 8:13 PM and 9:13 PM CST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:13 PM–9:13 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 70%Typical 22%
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 71%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 69%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 67% at worst → 18% now
Of 28 departures that took off between 10:03 AM and 11:03 AM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:03 AM–11:03 AM CSTSample 28 flightsLate 18%Typical 16%
What changed: late share 92% → 53%
Of 17 departures that took off between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:00 PM–10:00 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 53%Typical 51%
Older items Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.