Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Updated model puts Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 57%
▲ 47% → 57% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Of 12 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 55% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 63%, near normal
69% → 63%; calm-weather level 57%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Midway: 8 of 27 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn
Tight turns 8 of 27Of the 31 departures scheduled from Midway (MDW) between 5:55 PM and 7:25 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 27. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MDW is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Midway departures back near normal: 17% late in the last hour
late share 100% at worst → 17% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 23 departures that took off between 8:41 PM and 9:41 PM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Midway departures back near normal: 28% late in the last hour
late share 75% at worst → 28% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 18 departures that took off between 1:09 PM and 2:09 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 38%, near normal
46% → 38%; calm-weather level 30%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 29%, near normal
42% → 29%; calm-weather level 25%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Midway departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour
late share 75% at worst → 0% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 24 departures that took off between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM CST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Midway departures back near normal: 4% late in the last hour
late share 56% at worst → 4% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 26 departures that took off between 12:57 PM and 1:57 PM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Midway arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
50% lateOf 14 arrivals that landed between 8:25 PM and 9:25 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Midway arrivals back near normal: 15% late in the last hour
late share 75% at worst → 15% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 7:32 PM and 8:32 PM CST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 55%, near normal
58% → 55%; calm-weather level 50%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 64%
▲ 51% → 64% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Midway: 11 of 29 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn
Tight turns 11 of 29Of the 31 departures scheduled from Midway (MDW) between 5:36 PM and 7:06 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 29. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MDW is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 3 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules
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Of 12 departures that took off between 1:23 PM and 2:23 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Midway departure delays ease: 44% late in the last hour, still above normal
▼ late share 83% → 44%Loading earlier updates…
Of 18 departures that took off between 9:09 PM and 10:09 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
5 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Of 20 arrivals that landed between 8:13 PM and 9:13 PM CST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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