Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 83 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Monday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 4. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 151 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 16. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 7 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 8 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 144 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 6.3 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 144 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 3.3 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 6 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 122 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 13.0 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: about 7 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 6 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 122 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 100 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: about 6 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 89 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 4.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 110 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Monday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 16.0 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: about 9 → 6 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 89 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 132 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 89 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 7 → 12 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 89 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 8 → 4
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 161 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 9 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 118 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 14 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 160 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 14.6 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: about 17 → 14 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 155 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 17.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 115 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 14.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: about 16 → 17 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 156 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~17 cancellationsHorizon 19.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: about 9 → 12 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 113 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 16.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
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