Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3
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- Resolved at 5:26 AM EST
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 9 cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 101 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.5 over 101 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 31, 6:00 PM EDT · 21.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-31 22:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 9 → 12 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 113 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.9 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 31, 11:00 PM EDT · 16.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 03:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 115 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.7 over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 1:00 AM EDT · 14.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3
What changed: about 9 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 118 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.5 over 118 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 4:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 10:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?