tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model raises Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 79%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Sunday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 6:00 PM EDT · 21.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 22:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 59%

    What changed: 48% → 59% since the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 118 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 7:00 AM EST · 6.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 13:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 67%

    What changed: 59% → 67% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Sunday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 118 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 9:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 14:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 79%

    What changed: 67% → 79% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Sunday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)79% over 118 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 11:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 1, 3:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.