tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 78%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 131 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Sunday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 131 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 6:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 67%

    What changed: 47% → 67% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 132 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Sunday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 132 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 8:00 AM EST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 78%

    What changed: 67% → 78% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 132 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)78% over 132 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 10:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 1, 12:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.