Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 hstaleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 223 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (223 h old).
Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.
Weather observations is stale.
Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 12:21 AM and 1:21 AM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Of 18 departures that took off between 11:06 PM and 12:06 AM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Of 33 departures that took off between 6:20 PM and 7:20 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
7 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 30 departures that took off between 9:43 PM and 10:43 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Of 23 departures that took off between 3:37 PM and 4:37 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:51 AM and 6:51 AM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Of 34 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM EST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Of 27 arrivals that landed between 9:17 PM and 10:17 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 20 departures that took off between 4:18 PM and 5:18 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 32 arrivals that landed between 7:41 AM and 8:41 AM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
5 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 147 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 162 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 21% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 33 departures that took off between 6:54 PM and 7:54 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 6:45 AM and 7:45 AM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Of 16 departures that took off between 11:05 PM and 12:05 AM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Thursday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 134 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Thursday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 6:51 AM and 7:51 AM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MIA
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Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?