Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:59 PM–2:59 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 60%Typical 18%
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: 34% → 31%; calm-weather level 25%
Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 16 departures that took off between 1:33 PM and 2:33 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:33 PM–2:33 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%
What changed: late share 44% at worst → 7% now
Of 30 arrivals that landed between 11:00 AM and 12:00 PM CST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:00 AM–12:00 PM CSTSample 30 flightsLate 7%Typical 18%
What changed: late share 67% at worst → 9% now
Of 44 departures that took off between 10:13 AM and 11:13 AM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 27% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:13 AM–11:13 AM CSTSample 44 flightsLate 9%Typical 17%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:32 AM and 10:32 AM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:32 AM–10:32 AM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 44%Typical 18%
What changed: 46% → 34% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 34%Horizon 7.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 44% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 17 departures that took off between 5:58 AM and 6:58 AM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:58 AM–6:58 AM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 47%Typical 8%
Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 75% → 50%
Of 16 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:06 PM–11:06 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%
What changed: late share 69% → 50%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 9:35 PM and 10:35 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:35 PM–10:35 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 18%
What changed: late share 44% → 69%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:15 PM and 10:15 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:15 PM–10:15 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 69%Typical 18%
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 8:50 PM and 9:50 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:50 PM–9:50 PM CSTSample 18 flightsLate 44%Typical 18%
What changed: late share 48% → 75%
Of 20 departures that took off between 8:38 PM and 9:38 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:38 PM–9:38 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 75%Typical 22%
Of 31 departures that took off between 8:18 PM and 9:18 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:18 PM–9:18 PM CSTSample 31 flightsLate 48%Typical 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 42% at worst → 8% now
Of 36 arrivals that landed between 6:17 PM and 7:17 PM CST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:17 PM–7:17 PM CSTSample 36 flightsLate 8%Typical 18%
Of 25 arrivals that landed between 5:30 PM and 6:30 PM CST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:30 PM–6:30 PM CSTSample 25 flightsLate 40%Typical 18%
What changed: late share 62% at worst → 21% now
Of 29 departures that took off between 5:45 PM and 6:45 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:45 PM–6:45 PM CSTSample 29 flightsLate 21%Typical 26%
Of 15 departures that took off between 3:42 PM and 4:42 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 3:42 PM–4:42 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 60%Typical 28%
What changed: late share 58% at worst → 28% now
Of 47 departures that took off between 2:43 PM and 3:43 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 2:43 PM–3:43 PM CSTSample 47 flightsLate 28%Typical 24%
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