Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Of the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 9:09 PM and 10:39 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 9:09 PM–10:39 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 15Share 53%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View STL
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 6:58 PM and 7:58 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 25 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 5:36 PM and 7:06 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 21. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 5:36 PM–7:06 PM CSTTight turns 9 of 21Share 43%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View STL
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 17 departures that took off between 7:34 PM and 8:34 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 53% → 67% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 10:39 AM and 11:39 AM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:39 AM–11:39 AM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 62%Typical 21%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View STL
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 69% → 78% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 departures that took off between 4:25 PM and 5:25 PM CST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:55 PM and 11:55 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:08 PM and 11:08 PM CST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 79% → 83% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 19 arrivals that landed between 6:52 PM and 7:52 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 76% → 79% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 20 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 7:09 PM and 8:39 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 18. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 7:09 PM–8:39 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 18Share 44%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View STL
What changed: 65% → 76% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 72% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.