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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

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Passenger events at your flight's airports

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EST, Nov 13 26 min ago
Confirmed Major New Ground stop arrivals and departures

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗ Timeline (1)
EST, Nov 13 29 min ago
Confirmed Significant New Traffic restriction arrivals and departures

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗ Timeline (1)
CST, Nov 13 30 min ago
Forecast 63% Significant New Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 63% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 63%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 13 30 min ago
Forecast 54% Significant New Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 54% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 54%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 13 2 h ago
Forecast 45% Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for St Louis departures 3–6 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 45%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 13 3 h ago
Forecast 43% Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for St Louis departures noon–3 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 43%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 13 4 h ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Delay STL departures

St Louis departures back near normal: 18% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 67% at worst → 18% now

Of 22 departures that took off between 10:02 AM and 11:02 AM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 15% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 25% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

Window 10:02 AM–11:02 AM CSTSample 22 flightsLate 18%Typical 15%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (2) View STL
CST, Nov 13 5 h ago
Observed Major Resolved Delay STL departures

St Louis departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 13 departures that took off between 8:45 AM and 9:45 AM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 8:45 AM–9:45 AM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 62%Typical 17%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (2) View STL
CST, Nov 13 7 h ago
Forecast 32% Informational Resolved Resolution Delay STL departures

Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal

What changed: 42% → 32%; calm-weather level 22%

Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 32%Horizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) View STL
CST, Nov 13 10 h ago
Forecast 42% Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for St Louis departures noon–3 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 42%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) View STL
CST, Nov 12 18 h ago
Observed Significant Resolved Inbound aircraft STL departures

St Louis: 8 of 15 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

Of the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 9:09 PM and 10:39 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

Next 9:09 PM–10:39 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 15Share 53%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 12 19 h ago
Observed Significant Resolved Delay STL arrivals

St Louis arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 16 arrivals that landed between 6:58 PM and 7:58 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 6:58 PM–7:58 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 12 22 h ago
Forecast 66% Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 66% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 66%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 12 22 h ago
Forecast 59% Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 59% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Thursday

Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 59%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 12 25 h ago
Forecast 48% Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for St Louis departures 3–6 PM Thursday

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 48%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 11 45 h ago
Observed Significant Resolved Inbound aircraft STL departures

St Louis: 9 of 21 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

Of the 25 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 5:36 PM and 7:06 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 21. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

Next 5:36 PM–7:06 PM CSTTight turns 9 of 21Share 43%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 9 3 days ago
Observed Significant Resolved Delay STL arrivals

St Louis arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 21 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 8:46 PM–9:46 PM CSTSample 21 flightsLate 43%Typical 21%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 9 3 days ago
Observed Significant Resolved De-escalation Delay STL departures

St Louis departure delays ease: 35% late in the last hour, still above normal

What changed: late share 62% → 35%

Of 17 departures that took off between 7:34 PM and 8:34 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 7:34 PM–8:34 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 35%Typical 39%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (2) View STL
CST, Nov 9 3 days ago
Forecast 67% Major Resolved Escalation Delay STL departures

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 67%

What changed: 53% → 67% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 67%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) View STL
CST, Nov 9 4 days ago
Forecast 53% Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 53% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 53%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) View STL
CST, Nov 9 4 days ago
Forecast 46% Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Monday

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 46%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 9 4 days ago
Observed Major Resolved Delay STL departures

St Louis departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 13 departures that took off between 10:39 AM and 11:39 AM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 10:39 AM–11:39 AM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 62%Typical 21%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (2) View STL
CST, Nov 8 4 days ago
Observed Significant Resolved Delay STL arrivals

St Louis arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 9:42 PM–10:42 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 21%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (1) View STL
CST, Nov 8 4 days ago
Observed Major Resolved Escalation Delay STL departures

St Louis departure delays worsen: 85% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 67% → 85%

Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 8:21 PM–9:21 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 39%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (2) View STL
CST, Nov 8 4 days ago
Forecast 78% Major Resolved Escalation Delay STL departures

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 78%

What changed: 69% → 78% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 78%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) View STL

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